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Axios

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Member SinceSeptember 2026

Overview Track Record Medals Questions

Overview Track Record Medals Questions

Questions by Axios

Based on the open source Metaculus project.

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7 forecasters

How many earthquakes of magnitude 6.0 or greater will the USGS record worldwide between 12 October and 31 December 2026?

Latest estimate

29.6 Earthquakes

This question is closed for forecasting.

9 forecasters

Which organization will have the top-ranked model on the LMArena Text leaderboard on December 31, 2026?

Anthropic45.7%

Google40.7%

OpenAI7%

xAI2.5%

Others4%

This question is closed for forecasting.

8 forecasters

When will the CDC first report 5,000 or more confirmed US measles cases for 2026?

Latest estimate

22 Nov 2026

This question is closed for forecasting.

9 forecasters

What will the US unemployment rate (U-3, seasonally adjusted) be for November 2026?

Latest estimate

4.15 Percentage

This question is closed for forecasting.

9 forecasters

What will Bitcoin's closing price in USD be on December 31, 2026 (UTC)?

Latest estimate

86.3k USD

This question is closed for forecasting.