finnhambly

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Member SinceApril 2026

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Questions by finnhambly

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11 forecasters

What 2035 minimum GB electricity demand will NESO forecast in eligible material between 5 Jun and 12 Aug 2026?

Latest estimate

20.6 GW

This question is closed for forecasting.

11 comments

10 forecasters

When will an open-weight AI model achieve 70%+ on CyberGym Level 1?

community

>12 Aug 2026

result

02 Jul 2026 UTC

12 comments

10 forecasters

When will Valve’s 2026 Steam Machine become available for purchase?

community

>12 Aug 2026

result

29 Jun 2026 UTC

0 comments

12 forecasters

What 2050 hydrogen-to-power capacity will NESO assume in material newly released between 22 May and 11 Aug 2026?

Latest estimate

22 GW

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

11 forecasters

What current assets will EPOCH AI LTD report in its first Companies House accounts?

community

215k £

result

26.76k £

0 comments

8 forecasters

When will PortWatch first record at least 200 weekly transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz?

community

12 Jul 2026 20:33

result

28 Jun 2026 UTC

0 comments

10 forecasters

How escalatory will U.S. ground operations in Iran be before Aug 12?

Raid only72.3%

Nuclear-material seizure only4.6%

Kharg-only occupation10.1%

Beyond Kharg6.7%

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

7 forecasters

By what date will the first publicly released model score above 70% on SWE-Bench Pro (Public Dataset)?

Latest estimate

12 Jul 2026

This question is closed for forecasting.

10 comments

7 forecasters

What will be the total number of transit calls PortWatch records through the Strait of Hormuz for the period April 27–May 3, 2026?

community

50.9 calls

result

40 calls

2 comments

7 forecasters

What will be the maximum number of US troops deployed on Iranian territory during May 2026?

community

783 Troops

result

Annulled