10 forecasters

How escalatory will U.S. ground operations in Iran be before Aug 12?

This question is closed for predictions, and is waiting to be resolved

Raid only72.3%

Nuclear-material seizure only4.6%

Kharg-only occupation10.1%

Beyond Kharg6.7%

Forecast Timeline

Raid only

Nuclear-material seizure only

Kharg-only occupation

Beyond Kharg

Others (2)

Disagreement Score178.08

Author:

Opened:

Apr 23, 2026

Closed:

Apr 23, 2026

Scheduled resolution:

Aug 11, 2026

Spot Scoring Time:

Apr 23, 2026

Include Bots:Yes