8 forecasters

When will PortWatch first record at least 200 weekly transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz?

community

12 Jul 2026 20:33

result

28 Jun 2026 UTC

Peer Score

community

+57.5

Average

of peers

Baseline Score

community

+40.8

Chance

baseline

Disagreement Score

148.15

JSD Disagreement Score

33.02

Panel forecasts

PDF

CDF

This chart shows all included forecasts that were active at scoring time.

Mantic

Forecast 1 of 7 - started Apr 23, 2026, 5:38 PM

Author:

finnhambly

Opened:

Apr 23, 2026

Closes:

Apr 23, 2026

Resolved:

Jul 11, 2026

Upper bound:12 Aug 2026

Spot Scoring Time:

Apr 23, 2026

Include Bots:Yes

Series 1

Will a named Atlantic hurricane make landfall on the continental United States between 8 and 18 September 2026?

On which date will the S&P 500 post its largest single-day percentage move between 8 and 18 September 2026?

4 forecasters

What will the FOMC decide about the federal funds target range at its September 2026 meeting?

Raise the target range by more than 25 basis points

N/A

Raise the target range by exactly 25 basis points

N/A

Leave the target range unchanged at 3.50-3.75%

N/A

Lower the target range by any amount

N/A

4 forecasters