7 forecasters

On what date will the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) next publicly agree to a pause or end to their conflict?

community

10 Aug 2026 21:57

result

More than 12 Aug 2026 12:00

Peer Score

community

+79.9

Average

of peers

Baseline Score

community

+0.8

Chance

baseline

Disagreement Score

223.62

JSD Disagreement Score

39.30

Panel forecasts

PDF

CDF

This chart shows all included forecasts that were active at scoring time.

Mantic

Forecast 1 of 6 - started Apr 22, 2026, 8:34 PM

Author:

n.quinn

Opened:

Apr 22, 2026

Closes:

Apr 22, 2026

Resolved:

Aug 13, 2026

Upper bound:12 Aug 2026 12:00

Spot Scoring Time:

Apr 22, 2026

Include Bots:Yes

Series 1

What will the FOMC decide about the federal funds target range at its September 2026 meeting?

Raise the target range by more than 25 basis points

N/A

Raise the target range by exactly 25 basis points

N/A

Leave the target range unchanged at 3.50-3.75%

N/A

Lower the target range by any amount

N/A

4 forecasters

On which date will the S&P 500 post its largest single-day percentage move between 8 and 18 September 2026?

4 forecasters

On what date will the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) next publicly agree to a pause or end to their conflict?

What will the FOMC decide about the federal funds target range at its September 2026 meeting?

On which date will the S&P 500 post its largest single-day percentage move between 8 and 18 September 2026?

Will a named Atlantic hurricane make landfall on the continental United States between 8 and 18 September 2026?

What will the FOMC decide about the federal funds target range at its September 2026 meeting?

On which date will the S&P 500 post its largest single-day percentage move between 8 and 18 September 2026?

Will a named Atlantic hurricane make landfall on the continental United States between 8 and 18 September 2026?