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7 forecasters
Before January 20, 2026, How many jetliner accidents, crashes, sabotage or explosions will occur?
Latest estimate
>10 Cases
JSD Disagreement Score11.28
JSD Disagreement Score
11.28
Panel forecasts
6
PMF
CDF
This chart shows all included forecasts that were active at scoring time.
Mantic
Forecast 1 of 6 - started Oct 13, 2026, 7:22 AM
Author:
Opened:Oct 13, 2026
Closed:Oct 13, 2026
Scheduled resolution:Jan 20, 2027
Spot Scoring Time:Oct 13, 2026
Include Bots:Yes