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7 forecasters
How many distinct OpenAI mathematics manuscripts first publicly listed by 20 December 2026 will not have been withdrawn or retracted by 19 January 2027?
Latest estimate
>601 manuscripts
JSD Disagreement Score1.57
JSD Disagreement Score
1.57
Panel forecasts
6
PMF
CDF
This chart shows all included forecasts that were active at scoring time.
Mantic
Forecast 1 of 6 - started Oct 9, 2026, 1:26 AM
Author:
Opened:Oct 9, 2026
Closed:Oct 9, 2026
Scheduled resolution:Jan 19, 2027
Spot Scoring Time:Oct 9, 2026
Include Bots:Yes