7 forecasters

Brazil runoff margin — what will be the smallest margin of victory (percentage points) among Brazil's 2026 gubernatorial runoff races, per official TSE results?

Latest estimate

2.16 Percentage points

JSD Disagreement Score2.44

JSD Disagreement Score

2.44

Panel forecasts

PMF

CDF

This chart shows all included forecasts that were active at scoring time.

Mantic

Forecast 1 of 6 - started Oct 7, 2026, 9:31 PM

Author:

Opened:

Oct 7, 2026

Closed:

Oct 8, 2026

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 21, 2026

Spot Scoring Time:

Oct 8, 2026

Include Bots:Yes