8 forecasters

How many of OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind, Meta, and xAI will each debut a new flagship-tier model on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index between Oct 6 and Dec 31, 2026?

Latest estimate

3.35 Labs

JSD Disagreement Score9.87

JSD Disagreement Score

9.87

Panel forecasts

PMF

CDF

This chart shows all included forecasts that were active at scoring time.

Mantic

Forecast 1 of 6 - started Oct 7, 2026, 9:32 PM

Author:

Opened:

Oct 7, 2026

Closed:

Oct 8, 2026

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 2, 2027

Spot Scoring Time:

Oct 8, 2026

Include Bots:Yes