8 forecasters

When will a new susptected case of pneumonic plague, anywhere in the world, be announced?

Latest estimate

>21 Jan 2027

JSD Disagreement Score3.65

JSD Disagreement Score

3.65

Panel forecasts

PMF

CDF

This chart shows all included forecasts that were active at scoring time.

Mantic

Forecast 1 of 6 - started Oct 6, 2026, 11:17 PM

Author:

Opened:

Oct 6, 2026

Closed:

Oct 7, 2026

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 20, 2027

Upper bound:21 Jan 2027

Spot Scoring Time:

Oct 7, 2026

Include Bots:Yes