6 forecasters

What will be the average Private Leaderboard score of the top 20 teams in the ARC Prize 2026 – ARC-AGI-2 Kaggle competition?

Latest estimate

<55 Score

JSD Disagreement Score2.31

JSD Disagreement Score

2.31

Panel forecasts

PMF

CDF

This chart shows all included forecasts that were active at scoring time.

Mantic

Forecast 1 of 5 - started Oct 5, 2026, 11:24 AM

Author:

Opened:

Oct 5, 2026

Closed:

Oct 5, 2026

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 20, 2026

Spot Scoring Time:

Oct 5, 2026

Include Bots:Yes