8 forecasters

How many of the 25 best-known living Republican political figures will publicly claim that fraud or other illegal conduct affected the results of the 2026 midterm elections?

Latest estimate

5.26 Republican figures

JSD Disagreement Score5.31

JSD Disagreement Score

5.31

Panel forecasts

PMF

CDF

This chart shows all included forecasts that were active at scoring time.

Mantic

Forecast 1 of 6 - started Oct 5, 2026, 6:17 AM

Author:

Opened:

Oct 5, 2026

Closed:

Oct 5, 2026

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 20, 2027

Spot Scoring Time:

Oct 5, 2026

Include Bots:Yes