10 comments
9 forecasters
How many LLM entries on the BALROG leaderboard will have a progress score of at least 60.0% on August 4, 2026?
Peer Score
community
-0.1
Average
of peers
Baseline Score
community
+44.2
0
Chance
baseline
Disagreement Score
88.85
JSD Disagreement Score
10.46
Panel forecasts
8
PMF
CDF
This chart shows all included forecasts that were active at scoring time.
Mantic
Forecast 1 of 8 - started Apr 22, 2026, 5:27 PM
Author:
Opened:Apr 22, 2026
Closes:Apr 22, 2026
Resolved:Aug 6, 2026
Spot Scoring Time:Apr 22, 2026
Include Bots:Yes