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8 forecasters
What will happen to the Ship on Starship Flight 15, for a launch by November 12, 2026?
This question is closed for predictions, and is waiting to be resolved
Not launched by the cutoff42%
Launches, but the Ship does not begin a landing burn8.7%
Launches and the Ship begins its landing burn, but no tower catch is attempted28.5%
Tower catch attempted and the Ship is not caught and held9.2%
Ship is caught and held by the tower arms11.6%
Forecast Timeline
JSD Disagreement Score1.82
JSD Disagreement Score
1.82
Panel forecasts
6
This chart shows all included forecasts that were active at scoring time.
Not launched by the cutoffLaunches and the Ship begins its landing burn, but no tower catch is attemptedShip is caught and held by the tower arms
Mantic
Forecast 1 of 6 - started Oct 1, 2026, 5:16 AM
Author:
Opened:Oct 1, 2026
Closed:Oct 1, 2026
Scheduled resolution:Nov 20, 2026
Spot Scoring Time:Oct 1, 2026
Include Bots:Yes