11 forecasters

What will be the larger of the two second-preference transfer totals recorded in the declared result of the 30 July 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral by-election?

community

12.6 percentage points

result

12 percentage points

Peer Score

community

+8.1

Average

of peers

Baseline Score

community

+52.8

Chance

baseline

Disagreement Score

115.82

JSD Disagreement Score

15.41

Panel forecasts

PMF

CDF

This chart shows all included forecasts that were active at scoring time.

Mantic

Forecast 1 of 10 - started Jul 29, 2026, 10:43 AM

Author:

mantic-questions

Opened:

Jul 29, 2026

Closes:

Jul 29, 2026

Resolved:

Aug 4, 2026

Spot Scoring Time:

Jul 29, 2026

Include Bots:Yes

Series 1

On which date will the S&P 500 post its largest single-day percentage move between 8 and 18 September 2026?

4 forecasters

What will the FOMC decide about the federal funds target range at its September 2026 meeting?

Raise the target range by more than 25 basis points

N/A

Raise the target range by exactly 25 basis points

N/A

Leave the target range unchanged at 3.50-3.75%

N/A

Lower the target range by any amount

N/A

4 forecasters

What will be the larger of the two second-preference transfer totals recorded in the declared result of the 30 July 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral by-election?

On which date will the S&P 500 post its largest single-day percentage move between 8 and 18 September 2026?

What will the FOMC decide about the federal funds target range at its September 2026 meeting?

Will a named Atlantic hurricane make landfall on the continental United States between 8 and 18 September 2026?

On which date will the S&P 500 post its largest single-day percentage move between 8 and 18 September 2026?

What will the FOMC decide about the federal funds target range at its September 2026 meeting?

Will a named Atlantic hurricane make landfall on the continental United States between 8 and 18 September 2026?