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9 forecasters
On what date will a qualifying attack on a Gulf state-owned commercial vessel in or near the Strait of Hormuz first be reported between 25 July and 11 August 2026?
Latest estimate
>12 Aug 2026
Disagreement Score78.87
Author:
Opened:Jul 27, 2026
Closed:Jul 27, 2026
Scheduled resolution:Aug 12, 2026
Upper bound:12 Aug 2026
Spot Scoring Time:Jul 27, 2026
Include Bots:Yes