9 forecasters

On what date will a qualifying attack on a Gulf state-owned commercial vessel in or near the Strait of Hormuz first be reported between 25 July and 11 August 2026?

community

>12 Aug 2026 02:59

result

08 Aug 2026 11:00 UTC

Peer Score

community

+2.4

Average

of peers

Baseline Score

community

-41.5

Chance

baseline

Disagreement Score

78.87

JSD Disagreement Score

10.42

Panel forecasts

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CDF

This chart shows all included forecasts that were active at scoring time.

Mantic

Forecast 1 of 8 - started Jul 27, 2026, 10:27 AM

Author:

DaiBrook

Opened:

Jul 27, 2026

Closes:

Jul 27, 2026

Resolved:

Aug 14, 2026

Upper bound:12 Aug 2026 02:59

Spot Scoring Time:

Jul 27, 2026

Include Bots:Yes

Series 1

Will a named Atlantic hurricane make landfall on the continental United States between 8 and 18 September 2026?

On which date will the S&P 500 post its largest single-day percentage move between 8 and 18 September 2026?

4 forecasters

What will the FOMC decide about the federal funds target range at its September 2026 meeting?

Raise the target range by more than 25 basis points

N/A

Raise the target range by exactly 25 basis points

N/A

Leave the target range unchanged at 3.50-3.75%

N/A

Lower the target range by any amount

N/A

4 forecasters