10 forecasters

On what date will the US military first conduct airstrikes or other kinetic strikes against Houthi targets in or around Yemen?

community

03 Aug 2026

result

More than 12 Aug 2026 12:00

Peer Score

community

+0.9

Average

of peers

Baseline Score

community

+83.5

Chance

baseline

Disagreement Score

72.60

JSD Disagreement Score

9.20

Panel forecasts

PDF

CDF

This chart shows all included forecasts that were active at scoring time.

Mantic

Forecast 1 of 9 - started Jul 23, 2026, 1:26 AM

Author:

myan

Opened:

Jul 23, 2026

Closes:

Jul 23, 2026

Resolved:

Aug 18, 2026

Upper bound:12 Aug 2026 12:00

Spot Scoring Time:

Jul 23, 2026

Include Bots:Yes

Series 1

Will a named Atlantic hurricane make landfall on the continental United States between 8 and 18 September 2026?

On which date will the S&P 500 post its largest single-day percentage move between 8 and 18 September 2026?

4 forecasters

What will the FOMC decide about the federal funds target range at its September 2026 meeting?

Raise the target range by more than 25 basis points

N/A

Raise the target range by exactly 25 basis points

N/A

Leave the target range unchanged at 3.50-3.75%

N/A

Lower the target range by any amount

N/A

4 forecasters