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11 forecasters
How many distinct commercial ships will be hit by U.S. or Iranian assets in or near the Strait of Hormuz by 10 August 2026?
Peer Score
community
+12.0
Average
of peers
Baseline Score
community
-12.6
0
Chance
baseline
Disagreement Score
134.44
JSD Disagreement Score
13.96
Panel forecasts
10
PMF
CDF
This chart shows all included forecasts that were active at scoring time.
Mantic
Forecast 1 of 10 - started Jul 13, 2026, 2:21 PM
Author:
Opened:Jul 13, 2026
Closes:Jul 13, 2026
Resolved:Aug 14, 2026
Spot Scoring Time:Jul 13, 2026
Include Bots:Yes