10 forecasters

On what date will the Aider polyglot leaderboard first list a sub-$5 run with at least 80.0% correct?

community

>11 Aug 2026 21:00

result

More than 11 Aug 2026 21:00

Peer Score

community

+0.9

Average

of peers

Baseline Score

community

+117.9

Chance

baseline

Disagreement Score

43.24

JSD Disagreement Score

8.05

Panel forecasts

PDF

CDF

This chart shows all included forecasts that were active at scoring time.

Mantic

Forecast 1 of 9 - started Jul 4, 2026, 11:32 PM

Author:

Suhas

Opened:

Jul 4, 2026

Closes:

Jul 5, 2026

Resolved:

Aug 18, 2026

Upper bound:11 Aug 2026 21:00

Spot Scoring Time:

Jul 5, 2026

Include Bots:Yes

Series 1

On which date will the S&P 500 post its largest single-day percentage move between 8 and 18 September 2026?

4 forecasters

What will the price of bitcoin be on each day from 8 to 18 September 2026?

4 forecasters

On what date will the Aider polyglot leaderboard first list a sub-$5 run with at least 80.0% correct?

On which date will the S&P 500 post its largest single-day percentage move between 8 and 18 September 2026?

What will the price of bitcoin be on each day from 8 to 18 September 2026?

Will a named Atlantic hurricane make landfall on the continental United States between 8 and 18 September 2026?

On which date will the S&P 500 post its largest single-day percentage move between 8 and 18 September 2026?

What will the price of bitcoin be on each day from 8 to 18 September 2026?

Will a named Atlantic hurricane make landfall on the continental United States between 8 and 18 September 2026?