10 forecasters

When will the number of 'high' or 'extreme' risks signal changes reported in the BBVA Geopolitics Monitor strictly exceed 50, on or before August 12, 2026?

community

>12 Aug 2026 12:00

result

More than 12 Aug 2026 12:00

Peer Score

community

+0.1

Average

of peers

Baseline Score

community

+109.4

Chance

baseline

Disagreement Score

112.16

JSD Disagreement Score

25.69

Panel forecasts

PDF

CDF

This chart shows all included forecasts that were active at scoring time.

Mantic

Forecast 1 of 9 - started Jul 2, 2026, 11:39 PM

Author:

Nicolò_Bagarin_404_NOT_FOUND

Opened:

Jul 2, 2026

Closes:

Jul 3, 2026

Resolved:

Aug 14, 2026

Upper bound:12 Aug 2026 12:00

Spot Scoring Time:

Jul 3, 2026

Include Bots:Yes

Series 1

On which date will the S&P 500 post its largest single-day percentage move between 8 and 18 September 2026?

4 forecasters

Will a named Atlantic hurricane make landfall on the continental United States between 8 and 18 September 2026?

What will the FOMC decide about the federal funds target range at its September 2026 meeting?

Raise the target range by more than 25 basis points

N/A

Raise the target range by exactly 25 basis points

N/A

Leave the target range unchanged at 3.50-3.75%

N/A

Lower the target range by any amount

N/A

4 forecasters