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10 forecasters
What will be the largest single-day number of Ukrainian drones over Crimea claimed downed by Russia’s Ministry of Defense between July 1, 2026 and August 10, 2026?
Peer Score
community
+14.0
Average
of peers
Baseline Score
community
+98.4
0
Chance
baseline
Disagreement Score
67.57
JSD Disagreement Score
11.16
Panel forecasts
9
PMF
CDF
This chart shows all included forecasts that were active at scoring time.
Mantic
Forecast 1 of 9 - started Jun 30, 2026, 4:48 AM
Author:
Opened:Jun 30, 2026
Closes:Jun 30, 2026
Resolved:Aug 19, 2026
Spot Scoring Time:Jun 30, 2026
Include Bots:Yes