9 forecasters

On what date will ESMA, EBA, or an EU/EEA authority first publicly issue an enforcement fine or formal cease-and-desist order under MiCA rules against a crypto-asset service provider or issuer?

community

>12 Aug 2026 12:00

result

More than 12 Aug 2026 12:00

Peer Score

community

+6.8

Average

of peers

Baseline Score

community

+95.6

Chance

baseline

Disagreement Score

76.17

JSD Disagreement Score

10.06

Panel forecasts

PDF

CDF

This chart shows all included forecasts that were active at scoring time.

Mantic

Forecast 1 of 8 - started Jun 29, 2026, 1:24 PM

Author:

PavelHanosek

Opened:

Jun 29, 2026

Closes:

Jun 29, 2026

Resolved:

Aug 14, 2026

Upper bound:12 Aug 2026 12:00

Spot Scoring Time:

Jun 29, 2026

Include Bots:Yes

Series 1

On which date will the S&P 500 post its largest single-day percentage move between 8 and 18 September 2026?

4 forecasters

What will the FOMC decide about the federal funds target range at its September 2026 meeting?

Raise the target range by more than 25 basis points

N/A

Raise the target range by exactly 25 basis points

N/A

Leave the target range unchanged at 3.50-3.75%

N/A

Lower the target range by any amount

N/A

4 forecasters

What will the price of bitcoin be on each day from 8 to 18 September 2026?

4 forecasters