10 forecasters

When will a GPT 5.6 class model be made publicly available?

community

15 Jul 2026 19:41

result

09 Jul 2026 17:30 UTC

Peer Score

community

+13.2

Average

of peers

Baseline Score

community

+36.0

Chance

baseline

Disagreement Score

80.38

JSD Disagreement Score

12.26

Panel forecasts

PDF

CDF

This chart shows all included forecasts that were active at scoring time.

Mantic

Forecast 1 of 9 - started Jun 27, 2026, 7:26 AM

Author:

mantic-questions

Opened:

Jun 27, 2026

Closes:

Jun 27, 2026

Resolved:

Jul 10, 2026

Upper bound:12 Aug 2026

Spot Scoring Time:

Jun 27, 2026

Include Bots:Yes

Series 1

Will a named Atlantic hurricane make landfall on the continental United States between 8 and 18 September 2026?

On which date will the S&P 500 post its largest single-day percentage move between 8 and 18 September 2026?

4 forecasters

What will the FOMC decide about the federal funds target range at its September 2026 meeting?

Raise the target range by more than 25 basis points

N/A

Raise the target range by exactly 25 basis points

N/A

Leave the target range unchanged at 3.50-3.75%

N/A

Lower the target range by any amount

N/A

4 forecasters