10 forecasters

When will the Chicago Fed Unemployment Rate Momentum Gauge next indicate a likely or very likely decrease in the unemployment rate?

community

>12 Aug 2026

result

30 Jul 2026 UTC

Peer Score

community

+56.6

Average

of peers

Baseline Score

community

-15.4

Chance

baseline

Disagreement Score

78.92

JSD Disagreement Score

15.45

Panel forecasts

PDF

CDF

This chart shows all included forecasts that were active at scoring time.

Mantic

Forecast 1 of 9 - started Jun 15, 2026, 9:17 PM

Author:

Nicolò_Bagarin_404_NOT_FOUND

Opened:

Jun 15, 2026

Closes:

Jun 15, 2026

Resolved:

Aug 20, 2026

Upper bound:12 Aug 2026

Spot Scoring Time:

Jun 15, 2026

Include Bots:Yes

Series 1

What will the FOMC decide about the federal funds target range at its September 2026 meeting?

Raise the target range by more than 25 basis points

N/A

Raise the target range by exactly 25 basis points

N/A

Leave the target range unchanged at 3.50-3.75%

N/A

Lower the target range by any amount

N/A

4 forecasters

On which date will the S&P 500 post its largest single-day percentage move between 8 and 18 September 2026?

4 forecasters

When will the Chicago Fed Unemployment Rate Momentum Gauge next indicate a likely or very likely decrease in the unemployment rate?

What will the FOMC decide about the federal funds target range at its September 2026 meeting?

On which date will the S&P 500 post its largest single-day percentage move between 8 and 18 September 2026?

Will a named Atlantic hurricane make landfall on the continental United States between 8 and 18 September 2026?

What will the FOMC decide about the federal funds target range at its September 2026 meeting?

On which date will the S&P 500 post its largest single-day percentage move between 8 and 18 September 2026?

Will a named Atlantic hurricane make landfall on the continental United States between 8 and 18 September 2026?