10 forecasters

When will Claude Fable 5 be made available again to users in the United States?

community

28 Jul 2026

result

01 Jul 2026 UTC

Peer Score

community

+34.9

Average

of peers

Baseline Score

community

-19.0

Chance

baseline

Disagreement Score

73.79

JSD Disagreement Score

14.38

Panel forecasts

PDF

CDF

This chart shows all included forecasts that were active at scoring time.

Mantic

Forecast 1 of 9 - started Jun 13, 2026, 6:22 AM

Author:

myan

Opened:

Jun 13, 2026

Closes:

Jun 13, 2026

Resolved:

Jul 10, 2026

Upper bound:12 Aug 2026

Spot Scoring Time:

Jun 13, 2026

Include Bots:Yes

Series 1

On which date will the S&P 500 post its largest single-day percentage move between 8 and 18 September 2026?

4 forecasters

Will a named Atlantic hurricane make landfall on the continental United States between 8 and 18 September 2026?

What will the FOMC decide about the federal funds target range at its September 2026 meeting?

Raise the target range by more than 25 basis points

N/A

Raise the target range by exactly 25 basis points

N/A

Leave the target range unchanged at 3.50-3.75%

N/A

Lower the target range by any amount

N/A

4 forecasters