9 forecasters

On what date will the U.S. 10-year Treasury constant maturity yield first be reported at or above 4.75%, on or before August 12, 2026?

community

>12 Aug 2026 12:00

result

31 Jul 2026 UTC

Peer Score

community

+21.6

Average

of peers

Baseline Score

community

+19.8

Chance

baseline

Disagreement Score

74.59

JSD Disagreement Score

18.06

Panel forecasts

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CDF

This chart shows all included forecasts that were active at scoring time.

Mantic

Forecast 1 of 8 - started Jun 12, 2026, 11:21 PM

Author:

exmateriae

Opened:

Jun 12, 2026

Closes:

Jun 13, 2026

Resolved:

Aug 17, 2026

Upper bound:12 Aug 2026 12:00

Spot Scoring Time:

Jun 13, 2026

Include Bots:Yes

Series 1

On which date will the S&P 500 post its largest single-day percentage move between 8 and 18 September 2026?

4 forecasters

What will the FOMC decide about the federal funds target range at its September 2026 meeting?

Raise the target range by more than 25 basis points

N/A

Raise the target range by exactly 25 basis points

N/A

Leave the target range unchanged at 3.50-3.75%

N/A

Lower the target range by any amount

N/A

4 forecasters

What will the price of bitcoin be on each day from 8 to 18 September 2026?

4 forecasters