8 forecasters

How many Russian shadow fleet vessels will be intercepted by EU countries between June 4 and August 12, 2026?

community

3.47

result

Peer Score

community

+3.7

Average

of peers

Baseline Score

community

+67.3

Chance

baseline

Disagreement Score

61.05

JSD Disagreement Score

4.72

Panel forecasts

PMF

CDF

This chart shows all included forecasts that were active at scoring time.

Mantic

Forecast 1 of 7 - started Jun 5, 2026, 8:17 PM

Author:

Opened:

Jun 5, 2026

Closes:

Jun 5, 2026

Resolved:

Aug 19, 2026

Spot Scoring Time:

Jun 5, 2026

Include Bots:Yes