11 forecasters

How many new tankers will UANI identify as transiting or attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz in defiance of the closure, between June 9 and August 11, 2026?

community

11.2 Tankers

result

10 Tankers

Peer Score

community

+2.8

Average

of peers

Baseline Score

community

+65.1

Chance

baseline

Disagreement Score

96.33

JSD Disagreement Score

11.22

Panel forecasts

PMF

CDF

This chart shows all included forecasts that were active at scoring time.

Mantic

Forecast 1 of 10 - started Jun 3, 2026, 9:15 PM

Author:

exmateriae

Opened:

Jun 3, 2026

Closes:

Jun 3, 2026

Resolved:

Aug 24, 2026

Spot Scoring Time:

Jun 3, 2026

Include Bots:Yes

Series 1

Will a named Atlantic hurricane make landfall on the continental United States between 8 and 18 September 2026?

On which date will the S&P 500 post its largest single-day percentage move between 8 and 18 September 2026?

4 forecasters

What will the FOMC decide about the federal funds target range at its September 2026 meeting?

Raise the target range by more than 25 basis points

N/A

Raise the target range by exactly 25 basis points

N/A

Leave the target range unchanged at 3.50-3.75%

N/A

Lower the target range by any amount

N/A

4 forecasters