11 forecasters

What will be the margin of victory in the Makerfield by-election?

community

5.41 percentage points

result

20.27721641 percentage points

Peer Score

community

+0.3

Average

of peers

Baseline Score

community

-16.4

Chance

baseline

Disagreement Score

56.38

JSD Disagreement Score

5.26

Panel forecasts

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CDF

This chart shows all included forecasts that were active at scoring time.

Mantic

Forecast 1 of 10 - started Jun 3, 2026, 11:17 AM

Author:

mantic-questions

Opened:

Jun 3, 2026

Closes:

Jun 3, 2026

Resolved:

Jun 20, 2026

Spot Scoring Time:

Jun 3, 2026

Include Bots:Yes

Series 1

What will the FOMC decide about the federal funds target range at its September 2026 meeting?

Raise the target range by more than 25 basis points

N/A

Raise the target range by exactly 25 basis points

N/A

Leave the target range unchanged at 3.50-3.75%

N/A

Lower the target range by any amount

N/A

4 forecasters

On which date will the S&P 500 post its largest single-day percentage move between 8 and 18 September 2026?

4 forecasters

What will be the margin of victory in the Makerfield by-election?

What will the FOMC decide about the federal funds target range at its September 2026 meeting?

On which date will the S&P 500 post its largest single-day percentage move between 8 and 18 September 2026?

Will a named Atlantic hurricane make landfall on the continental United States between 8 and 18 September 2026?

What will the FOMC decide about the federal funds target range at its September 2026 meeting?

On which date will the S&P 500 post its largest single-day percentage move between 8 and 18 September 2026?

Will a named Atlantic hurricane make landfall on the continental United States between 8 and 18 September 2026?