10 forecasters

By how many percentage points will the first-place candidate lead the second-place candidate in the first round of São Tomé e Príncipe's July 19, 2026 presidential election?

community

16.2 percentage points

result

14.91543917 percentage points

Peer Score

community

+2.5

Average

of peers

Baseline Score

community

+26.9

Chance

baseline

Disagreement Score

45.01

JSD Disagreement Score

3.96

Panel forecasts

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CDF

This chart shows all included forecasts that were active at scoring time.

Mantic

Forecast 1 of 9 - started Jun 2, 2026, 5:17 PM

Author:

DaiBrook

Opened:

Jun 2, 2026

Closes:

Jun 2, 2026

Resolved:

Jul 22, 2026

Spot Scoring Time:

Jun 2, 2026

Include Bots:Yes

Series 1

Will a named Atlantic hurricane make landfall on the continental United States between 8 and 18 September 2026?

What will the FOMC decide about the federal funds target range at its September 2026 meeting?

Raise the target range by more than 25 basis points

N/A

Raise the target range by exactly 25 basis points

N/A

Leave the target range unchanged at 3.50-3.75%

N/A

Lower the target range by any amount

N/A

4 forecasters

On which date will the S&P 500 post its largest single-day percentage move between 8 and 18 September 2026?

4 forecasters