11 forecasters

How many Statements of Reasons (SoRs) for Fully Automated content restrictions will TikTok submit to the EU Digital Services Act (DSA) Transparency Database in July 2026?

community

284M SoRs

result

40.851496M SoRs

Peer Score

community

+18.3

Average

of peers

Baseline Score

community

+89.1

Chance

baseline

Disagreement Score

134.71

JSD Disagreement Score

29.15

Panel forecasts

PDF

CDF

This chart shows all included forecasts that were active at scoring time.

Mantic

Forecast 1 of 10 - started May 30, 2026, 9:12 PM

Author:

hippopotamus_bartholomeus

Opened:

May 30, 2026

Closes:

May 30, 2026

Resolved:

Aug 4, 2026

Spot Scoring Time:

May 30, 2026

Include Bots:Yes

Series 1

On which date will the S&P 500 post its largest single-day percentage move between 8 and 18 September 2026?

4 forecasters

What will the FOMC decide about the federal funds target range at its September 2026 meeting?

Raise the target range by more than 25 basis points

N/A

Raise the target range by exactly 25 basis points

N/A

Leave the target range unchanged at 3.50-3.75%

N/A

Lower the target range by any amount

N/A

4 forecasters

How many Statements of Reasons (SoRs) for Fully Automated content restrictions will TikTok submit to the EU Digital Services Act (DSA) Transparency Database in July 2026?

On which date will the S&P 500 post its largest single-day percentage move between 8 and 18 September 2026?

What will the FOMC decide about the federal funds target range at its September 2026 meeting?

Will a named Atlantic hurricane make landfall on the continental United States between 8 and 18 September 2026?

On which date will the S&P 500 post its largest single-day percentage move between 8 and 18 September 2026?

What will the FOMC decide about the federal funds target range at its September 2026 meeting?

Will a named Atlantic hurricane make landfall on the continental United States between 8 and 18 September 2026?