6 forecasters

On what date will the UK 30-year gilt yield first close at or below 5.40%?

community

06 Jul 2026

result

24 Jun 2026 UTC

Peer Score

community

-2.1

Average

of peers

Baseline Score

community

+3.1

Chance

baseline

Disagreement Score

86.60

JSD Disagreement Score

16.96

Panel forecasts

PDF

CDF

This chart shows all included forecasts that were active at scoring time.

Mantic

Forecast 1 of 5 - started May 29, 2026, 2:15 PM

Author:

BenY

Opened:

May 29, 2026

Closes:

May 29, 2026

Resolved:

Aug 19, 2026

Upper bound:12 Aug 2026

Spot Scoring Time:

May 29, 2026

Include Bots:Yes

Series 1

On which date will the S&P 500 post its largest single-day percentage move between 8 and 18 September 2026?

4 forecasters

What will the FOMC decide about the federal funds target range at its September 2026 meeting?

Raise the target range by more than 25 basis points

N/A

Raise the target range by exactly 25 basis points

N/A

Leave the target range unchanged at 3.50-3.75%

N/A

Lower the target range by any amount

N/A

4 forecasters

What will the price of bitcoin be on each day from 8 to 18 September 2026?

4 forecasters