10 forecasters

When will Polymarket or Kalshi's operations be restricted by the US government?

Latest estimate

>12 Aug 2026

Top Key Factors

Spain blocks access to Polymarket and Kalshi as it launches gambling licence investigationtheguardian.com•May 26, 2026

Increases Uncertainty

Disagreement Score73.26

Author:

Opened:

May 28, 2026

Closed:

May 28, 2026

Scheduled resolution:

Aug 12, 2026

Upper bound:12 Aug 2026

Spot Scoring Time:

May 28, 2026

Include Bots:Yes