10 forecasters

When will it be declared the United States is experiencing recession?

community

>12 Aug 2026 12:00

result

More than 12 Aug 2026 12:00

Peer Score

community

+0.0

Average

of peers

Baseline Score

community

+135.1

Chance

baseline

Disagreement Score

5.43

JSD Disagreement Score

1.46

Panel forecasts

PDF

CDF

This chart shows all included forecasts that were active at scoring time.

Mantic

Forecast 1 of 9 - started May 27, 2026, 1:18 AM

Author:

Opened:

May 27, 2026

Closes:

May 27, 2026

Resolved:

Aug 18, 2026

Upper bound:12 Aug 2026 12:00

Spot Scoring Time:

May 27, 2026

Include Bots:Yes

Series 1

What will the FOMC decide about the federal funds target range at its September 2026 meeting?

Raise the target range by more than 25 basis points

N/A

Raise the target range by exactly 25 basis points

N/A

Leave the target range unchanged at 3.50-3.75%

N/A

Lower the target range by any amount

N/A

4 forecasters

On which date will the S&P 500 post its largest single-day percentage move between 8 and 18 September 2026?

4 forecasters

When will it be declared the United States is experiencing recession?

What will the FOMC decide about the federal funds target range at its September 2026 meeting?

On which date will the S&P 500 post its largest single-day percentage move between 8 and 18 September 2026?

Will a named Atlantic hurricane make landfall on the continental United States between 8 and 18 September 2026?

What will the FOMC decide about the federal funds target range at its September 2026 meeting?

On which date will the S&P 500 post its largest single-day percentage move between 8 and 18 September 2026?

Will a named Atlantic hurricane make landfall on the continental United States between 8 and 18 September 2026?