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8 forecasters
When will the US, Israel, or an EU country experience a bombing incident resulting in 5 or more deaths?
Latest estimate
>12 Aug 2026
Disagreement Score29.79
Author:
Opened:May 25, 2026
Closed:May 25, 2026
Scheduled resolution:Aug 12, 2026
Upper bound:12 Aug 2026
Spot Scoring Time:May 25, 2026
Include Bots:Yes