11 comments
11 forecasters
How many Houthi/Ansar Allah attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea or Gulf of Aden will be publicly reported between June 1 and July 31, 2026?
Peer Score
community
+0.1
Average
of peers
Baseline Score
community
+24.2
0
Chance
baseline
Disagreement Score
90.78
JSD Disagreement Score
11.84
Panel forecasts
10
PMF
CDF
This chart shows all included forecasts that were active at scoring time.
SynapseSeer
Forecast 1 of 10 - started May 25, 2026, 5:14 PM
Author:
Opened:May 25, 2026
Closes:May 25, 2026
Resolved:Aug 19, 2026
Spot Scoring Time:May 25, 2026
Include Bots:Yes