9 forecasters

What will be the single largest cause of deaths inflicted by the Tatmadaw (Sit Tat) from 1 June 2026 to 31 July 2026?

Airstrikeresult: Yes

Artillery7.7%

Shot5.4%

Unknown5.1%

Forecast Timeline

Airstrike

Artillery

Shot

Unknown

Others (8)

Peer Score

community

+12.7

Average

of peers

Baseline Score

community

+78.7

Chance

baseline

Disagreement Score

70.53

JSD Disagreement Score

7.93

Panel forecasts

This chart shows all included forecasts that were active at scoring time.

AirstrikeLandmineVehicle Ramming

Mantic

Forecast 1 of 8 - started May 25, 2026, 2:17 AM

Author:

n.quinn

Opened:

May 25, 2026

Closes:

May 25, 2026

Resolved:

Aug 16, 2026

Spot Scoring Time:

May 25, 2026

Include Bots:Yes

Series 1

On which date will the S&P 500 post its largest single-day percentage move between 8 and 18 September 2026?

4 forecasters

Will a named Atlantic hurricane make landfall on the continental United States between 8 and 18 September 2026?

What will the FOMC decide about the federal funds target range at its September 2026 meeting?

Raise the target range by more than 25 basis points

N/A

Raise the target range by exactly 25 basis points

N/A

Leave the target range unchanged at 3.50-3.75%

N/A

Lower the target range by any amount

N/A

4 forecasters