10 comments
8 forecasters
How many research papers in total mentioning AI P(doom) will be available via search on August 12th?
Peer Score
community
+14.5
Average
of peers
Baseline Score
community
+110.4
0
Chance
baseline
Disagreement Score
151.18
JSD Disagreement Score
29.47
Panel forecasts
7
PMF
CDF
This chart shows all included forecasts that were active at scoring time.
Mantic
Forecast 1 of 7 - started May 24, 2026, 8:11 AM
Author:
Opened:May 24, 2026
Closes:May 24, 2026
Resolved:Aug 13, 2026
Spot Scoring Time:May 24, 2026
Include Bots:Yes