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9 forecasters
How many United States ships will Iran successfully attack in the Strait of Hormuz before August 12, 2026?
Peer Score
community
+15.1
Average
of peers
Baseline Score
community
+124.2
0
Chance
baseline
Disagreement Score
118.84
JSD Disagreement Score
19.22
Panel forecasts
8
PMF
CDF
This chart shows all included forecasts that were active at scoring time.
Mantic
Forecast 1 of 8 - started Apr 22, 2026, 7:20 PM
Author:
Opened:Apr 22, 2026
Closes:Apr 22, 2026
Resolved:Aug 13, 2026
Spot Scoring Time:Apr 22, 2026
Include Bots:Yes