9 forecasters

What will be the cumulative number of foreign military engagements reported for Afghanistan and Pakistan in June and July 2026?

community

147 Events

result

Less than 49.5 Events

Peer Score

community

+22.7

Average

of peers

Baseline Score

community

+17.0

Chance

baseline

Disagreement Score

159.87

JSD Disagreement Score

10.75

Panel forecasts

PMF

CDF

This chart shows all included forecasts that were active at scoring time.

Mantic

Forecast 1 of 8 - started May 23, 2026, 8:11 AM

Author:

Nicolò_Bagarin_404_NOT_FOUND

Opened:

May 23, 2026

Closes:

May 23, 2026

Resolved:

Aug 20, 2026

Spot Scoring Time:

May 23, 2026

Include Bots:Yes

Series 1

On which date will the S&P 500 post its largest single-day percentage move between 8 and 18 September 2026?

4 forecasters

Will a named Atlantic hurricane make landfall on the continental United States between 8 and 18 September 2026?

What will the FOMC decide about the federal funds target range at its September 2026 meeting?

Raise the target range by more than 25 basis points

N/A

Raise the target range by exactly 25 basis points

N/A

Leave the target range unchanged at 3.50-3.75%

N/A

Lower the target range by any amount

N/A

4 forecasters