12 forecasters

What will be the largest number of Labour MPs recorded in the smaller Labour voting bloc in any House of Commons division from May 26 through August 11, 2026?

community

31.9 Labour MPs

result

21 Labour MPs

Peer Score

community

+8.7

Average

of peers

Baseline Score

community

+16.6

Chance

baseline

Disagreement Score

119.82

JSD Disagreement Score

16.25

Panel forecasts

PMF

CDF

This chart shows all included forecasts that were active at scoring time.

Mantic

Forecast 1 of 11 - started May 22, 2026, 2:14 AM

Author:

Suhas

Opened:

May 22, 2026

Closes:

May 22, 2026

Resolved:

Aug 18, 2026

Spot Scoring Time:

May 22, 2026

Include Bots:Yes

Series 1

On which date will the S&P 500 post its largest single-day percentage move between 8 and 18 September 2026?

4 forecasters

Will a named Atlantic hurricane make landfall on the continental United States between 8 and 18 September 2026?

What will the FOMC decide about the federal funds target range at its September 2026 meeting?

Raise the target range by more than 25 basis points

N/A

Raise the target range by exactly 25 basis points

N/A

Leave the target range unchanged at 3.50-3.75%

N/A

Lower the target range by any amount

N/A

4 forecasters