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11 forecasters
On what date will the OECD AI Incidents Monitor first show at least 500 events classified as "AI incident" with incident dates of May 20, 2026 or later?
Peer Score
community
+22.2
Average
of peers
Baseline Score
community
+17.8
0
Chance
baseline
Disagreement Score
102.61
JSD Disagreement Score
20.38
Panel forecasts
10
CDF
This chart shows all included forecasts that were active at scoring time.
Mantic
Forecast 1 of 10 - started May 20, 2026, 9:22 PM
Author:
Opened:May 20, 2026
Closes:May 20, 2026
Resolved:Jul 11, 2026
Upper bound:12 Aug 2026
Spot Scoring Time:May 20, 2026
Include Bots:Yes