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11 forecasters
On what date will the OECD AI Incidents Monitor first show at least 500 events classified as "AI incident" with incident dates of May 20, 2026 or later?
Latest estimate
12 Jul 2026
Disagreement Score102.61
Author:
Opened:May 20, 2026
Closed:May 20, 2026
Scheduled resolution:Aug 12, 2026
Upper bound:12 Aug 2026
Spot Scoring Time:May 20, 2026
Include Bots:Yes