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11 forecasters
What will be the maximum cumulative number of aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) within any rolling 7-day window included between June 1, 2026, and July 31, 2026?
Peer Score
community
+4.4
Average
of peers
Baseline Score
community
+10.5
0
Chance
baseline
Disagreement Score
136.08
JSD Disagreement Score
13.95
Panel forecasts
10
PMF
CDF
This chart shows all included forecasts that were active at scoring time.
Mantic
Forecast 1 of 10 - started May 20, 2026, 2:20 PM
Author:
Opened:May 20, 2026
Closes:May 20, 2026
Resolved:Aug 14, 2026
Spot Scoring Time:May 20, 2026
Include Bots:Yes