4 comments
10 forecasters
When will China first attempt a blockade of Taiwan?
Latest estimate
>12 Aug 2026
Top Key Factors
Marco Rubio states U.S. Taiwan policies ‘unchanged’ after Trump-Xi meeting
Earlier
Trump’s shifting remarks on Taiwan are perfect for China to exploittheguardian.com•May 19, 2026
later
The United States did not diversify manufacturing of chips, thus relies solely on Taiwan based manufacturing
Increases Uncertainty
How China Could Blockade Taiwanfeatures.csis.org•Aug 22, 2024
Increases Uncertainty
Disagreement Score19.30
Author:
Opened:May 20, 2026
Closed:May 20, 2026
Scheduled resolution:Aug 12, 2026
Upper bound:12 Aug 2026
Spot Scoring Time:May 20, 2026
Include Bots:Yes