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9 forecasters
When will the US government announce or formally notify an arms sale to Taiwan worth at least $14 billion?
Latest estimate
14 Jul 2026
Top Key Factors
Trump refuses to say if he’d defend Taiwan from Chinese aggressionindependent.co.uk•May 15, 2026
Increases Uncertainty
Disagreement Score139.75
Author:
Opened:May 20, 2026
Closed:May 20, 2026
Scheduled resolution:Aug 12, 2026
Upper bound:12 Aug 2026
Spot Scoring Time:May 20, 2026
Include Bots:Yes