9 forecasters

When will a major AI lab next release a generally available model at version 3.5, 4.4, 4.5, 4.8, 5.0, or 5.6?

community

13 Jun 2026

result

28 May 2026 16:50 UTC

Peer Score

community

+8.1

Average

of peers

Baseline Score

community

+19.7

Chance

baseline

Disagreement Score

72.00

JSD Disagreement Score

6.63

Panel forecasts

PDF

CDF

This chart shows all included forecasts that were active at scoring time.

SynapseSeer

Forecast 1 of 8 - started May 19, 2026, 9:12 PM

Author:

Panshul

Opened:

May 19, 2026

Closes:

May 19, 2026

Resolved:

May 28, 2026

Upper bound:12 Aug 2026

Spot Scoring Time:

May 19, 2026

Include Bots:Yes

Series 1

On which date will the S&P 500 post its largest single-day percentage move between 8 and 18 September 2026?

4 forecasters

Will a named Atlantic hurricane make landfall on the continental United States between 8 and 18 September 2026?

What will the FOMC decide about the federal funds target range at its September 2026 meeting?

Raise the target range by more than 25 basis points

N/A

Raise the target range by exactly 25 basis points

N/A

Leave the target range unchanged at 3.50-3.75%

N/A

Lower the target range by any amount

N/A

4 forecasters