8 forecasters

On what date will the United States next conduct offensive military strikes against targets inside Iranian territory?

community

11 Jul 2026 05:30

result

07 Jul 2026 00:00 UTC

Peer Score

community

+0.8

Average

of peers

Baseline Score

community

-36.2

Chance

baseline

Disagreement Score

57.40

JSD Disagreement Score

6.31

Panel forecasts

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CDF

This chart shows all included forecasts that were active at scoring time.

Mantic

Forecast 1 of 7 - started May 19, 2026, 12:38 PM

Author:

JordanBerman

Opened:

May 19, 2026

Closes:

May 19, 2026

Resolved:

Jul 11, 2026

Upper bound:12 Aug 2026

Spot Scoring Time:

May 19, 2026

Include Bots:Yes

Series 1

Will a named Atlantic hurricane make landfall on the continental United States between 8 and 18 September 2026?

On which date will the S&P 500 post its largest single-day percentage move between 8 and 18 September 2026?

4 forecasters

What will the FOMC decide about the federal funds target range at its September 2026 meeting?

Raise the target range by more than 25 basis points

N/A

Raise the target range by exactly 25 basis points

N/A

Leave the target range unchanged at 3.50-3.75%

N/A

Lower the target range by any amount

N/A

4 forecasters