8 forecasters

What will be the date of the largest public presidential clemency batch of at least 5 people before August 12, 2026?

community

04 Jul 2026

result

More than 12 Aug 2026 12:00

Peer Score

community

+27.5

Average

of peers

Baseline Score

community

+60.1

Chance

baseline

Disagreement Score

156.74

JSD Disagreement Score

26.74

Panel forecasts

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CDF

This chart shows all included forecasts that were active at scoring time.

Mantic

Forecast 1 of 7 - started May 18, 2026, 3:33 PM

Author:

jandolina

Opened:

May 18, 2026

Closes:

May 18, 2026

Resolved:

Aug 14, 2026

Upper bound:12 Aug 2026 12:00

Spot Scoring Time:

May 18, 2026

Include Bots:Yes

Series 1

On which date will the S&P 500 post its largest single-day percentage move between 8 and 18 September 2026?

4 forecasters

Will a named Atlantic hurricane make landfall on the continental United States between 8 and 18 September 2026?

What will the FOMC decide about the federal funds target range at its September 2026 meeting?

Raise the target range by more than 25 basis points

N/A

Raise the target range by exactly 25 basis points

N/A

Leave the target range unchanged at 3.50-3.75%

N/A

Lower the target range by any amount

N/A

4 forecasters