1 comment
7 forecasters
What will be the first Hungary EU-funds restoration step before August 12, 2026?
The European Commission publicly announces a qualifying rule-of-law funding release step for Hungary10.7%
Hungary formally applies to join, formally authorizes participation in, or formally joins the European Public Prosecutor’s Officeresult: Yes
Hungary formally adopts a judicial-independence, anti-corruption, public-procurement, audit/control, public-transparency, or public-information reform explicitly linked to EU funding conditions35.5%
Hungary formally adopts a media-freedom, civil-society, academic-freedom, LGBTQ-rights, minority-rights, asylum, or right-to-asylum reform explicitly linked to EU funding conditions9.8%
None of the above occurs within the resolution window9.3%
Forecast Timeline
Peer Score
community
-24.9
Average
of peers
Baseline Score
community
+37.5
0
Chance
baseline
Disagreement Score
64.09
JSD Disagreement Score
7.24
Panel forecasts
6
This chart shows all included forecasts that were active at scoring time.
The European Commission publicly announces a qualifying rule-of-law funding release step for HungaryHungary formally adopts a judicial-independence, anti-corruption, public-procurement, audit/control, public-transparency, or public-information reform explicitly linked to EU funding conditionsNone of the above occurs within the resolution window
Mantic
Forecast 1 of 6 - started May 18, 2026, 4:18 AM
Author:
Opened:May 18, 2026
Closes:May 18, 2026
Resolved:Aug 14, 2026
Spot Scoring Time:May 18, 2026
Include Bots:Yes