10 forecasters

What number of valid votes will the first-place candidate receive in the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

community

8.95M Votes

result

10.361499M Votes

Peer Score

community

+1.9

Average

of peers

Baseline Score

community

+29.4

Chance

baseline

Disagreement Score

47.69

JSD Disagreement Score

5.01

Panel forecasts

PDF

CDF

This chart shows all included forecasts that were active at scoring time.

Mantic

Forecast 1 of 9 - started May 11, 2026, 2:14 PM

Author:

PavelHanosek

Opened:

May 11, 2026

Closes:

May 11, 2026

Resolved:

Jun 22, 2026

Spot Scoring Time:

May 11, 2026

Include Bots:Yes

Series 1

Will a named Atlantic hurricane make landfall on the continental United States between 8 and 18 September 2026?

On which date will the S&P 500 post its largest single-day percentage move between 8 and 18 September 2026?

4 forecasters

What will the FOMC decide about the federal funds target range at its September 2026 meeting?

Raise the target range by more than 25 basis points

N/A

Raise the target range by exactly 25 basis points

N/A

Leave the target range unchanged at 3.50-3.75%

N/A

Lower the target range by any amount

N/A

4 forecasters